New Developing Circulation Near RMI

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NWS says Invest Area 99W has very uncertain future.

Guam – Another circulation–Invest Area 99W–is seen near the Marshall Islands; however, its exact strength, track, and timing in future remains very uncertain.

Regarding the strength of the circulation, the National Weather Service wrote in its Area Forecast Discussion this morning, “GFS still spins the disturbance into a better-developed system by the end of the week […].” However by this afternoon, NWS writes, “Tropical Disturbance 99W has shown little inclination to develop in the last 24 hrs.”

The track and timing of the circulation also became uncertain; in this morning 99W was seen near southeast of Majuro and was originally expected to pass near Majuro by this Friday, but its elongated center moved away from the estimated track and across the dateline by this afternoon. Different computer model runs are pulling different forecast for 99W as well. Fortunately favorable runs were returned this afternoon in which the circulation is expected to be weaker or even dissipated in few days

Nevertheless, development of the 99W is expected to be closely monitored. as NWS wrote this morning, “[…] several El Niño years have had a tropical cyclone hit the Marianas in January.”

READ THE LATEST WEATHER DISCUSSION FROM NWS 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GUM&issuedby=PQ&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

READ THE LATEST WEATHER DISCUSSION FROM JTWC 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

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